COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.
$159.07
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 35.1% above fair value
You pay
$159.07
Bear
$82.40
Fair
$117.72
Bull
$153.03
Bear
$82.40
-48.2%
ROTCE 10.2% → 0.62x TBV
Fair
$117.72
-26.0%
ROTCE 13.7% → 0.97x TBV
Bull
$153.03
-3.8%
ROTCE 15.7% → 1.17x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.7%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
4.54x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $223.12 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $117.72 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (13.7%) is below the minimum investors require (14.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $223.12 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly