COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.
$173.16
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 159.4% above fair value
You pay
$173.16
Bear
$46.72
Fair
$66.75
Bull
$86.78
Bear
$46.72
-73.0%
ROTCE 10.2% → 0.62x TBV
Fair
$66.75
-61.5%
ROTCE 13.7% → 0.97x TBV
Bull
$86.78
-49.9%
ROTCE 15.7% → 1.17x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.7%
14.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.7%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
4.95x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (39 analysts)
$212.36
Divergence from AlphaVal
69%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.7% vs. 14.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.97x on $34.97 tangible book, implying $66.75 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (13.7%) is below the minimum investors require (14.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $212.36 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 69% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly