COIN Coinbase Global, Inc.
$184.99
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 50.5% above fair value

You pay $184.99
Bear $86.04
Fair $122.93
Bull $159.80
Bear $86.04 -53.5% ROTCE 10.2% → 0.62x TBV
Fair $122.93 -33.5% ROTCE 13.7% → 0.97x TBV
Bull $159.80 -13.6% ROTCE 15.7% → 1.17x TBV

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.7%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 5.28x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $240.47 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $122.93 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (13.7%) is below the minimum investors require (14.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $240.47 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly