COHU
Cohu, Inc.
$46.26
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 390.0% above fair value
You pay
$46.26
Bear
$7.08
Fair
$9.44
Bull
$11.80
Bear
$7.08
-84.7%
$0.59 × 12x
Fair
$9.44
-79.6%
$0.59 × 16x
Bull
$11.80
-74.5%
$0.59 × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
0.59$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.59)
Implied Market Multiple
78.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$66.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
86%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.59 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $9.44 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 5.2x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 5.2x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $66.83 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 86% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing