COHR
Coherent, Inc.
$235.58
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 184.9% above fair value
You pay
$235.58
Bear
$66.15
Fair
$82.69
Bull
$99.22
Bear
$66.15
-71.9%
$4.12 × 16x P/E
Fair
$82.69
-64.9%
$4.12 × 20x P/E
Bull
$99.22
-57.9%
$4.12 × 24x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
20.1x
4.12$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
57.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$382.30
Divergence from AlphaVal
78%
Summary
Applying a 20x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.12, the base-case value is $82.69 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $382.30 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples