COHR
Coherent, Inc.
$377.57
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 204.8% above fair value
You pay
$377.57
Bear
$33.30
Fair
$123.86
Bull
$244.47
Bear
$33.30
-91.2%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$123.86
-67.2%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$244.47
-35.3%
30% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
336.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $324.00 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $123.86 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 325% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $324.00 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions