CODI
Compass Diversified
$11.46
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 44.9% below fair value
You pay
$11.46
Bear
$16.66
Fair
$20.82
Bull
$24.98
Bear
$16.66
+45.3%
$1.48 × 12x P/E
Fair
$20.82
+81.6%
$1.48 × 15x P/E
Bull
$24.98
+118.0%
$1.48 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.82 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $15.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 48% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples