COCO
The Vita Coco Company, Inc.
$58.39
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 76.7% above fair value
You pay
$58.39
Bear
$28.32
Fair
$33.04
Bull
$37.76
Bear
$28.32
-51.5%
$1.19 × 24x P/E
Fair
$33.04
-43.4%
$1.19 × 28x P/E
Bull
$37.76
-35.3%
$1.19 × 32x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
27.8x
1.19$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (28x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
49.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$77.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
58%
Summary
Applying a 28x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.19, the base-case value is $33.04 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $77.80 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples