COCO
The Vita Coco Company, Inc.
$73.18
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 71.5% above fair value
You pay
$73.18
Bear
$36.58
Fair
$42.68
Bull
$48.78
Bear
$36.58
-50.0%
$1.19 × 24x P/E
Fair
$42.68
-41.7%
$1.19 × 28x P/E
Bull
$48.78
-33.3%
$1.19 × 32x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (28x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
61.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $71.60 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $42.68 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $71.60 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples