COCO The Vita Coco Company, Inc.
$76.04
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 90.1% above fair value

You pay $76.04
Bear $34.29
Fair $40.00
Bull $45.72
Bear $34.29 -54.9% $1.19 × 24x P/E
Fair $40.00 -47.4% $1.19 × 28x P/E
Bull $45.72 -39.9% $1.19 × 32x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (28x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 63.9x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $67.86 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $40.00 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $67.86 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples