CNX
CNX Resources Corporation
$33.83
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.1% above fair value
You pay
$33.83
Bear
$8.74
Fair
$33.14
Bull
$65.67
Bear
$8.74
-74.2%
FCF $468M × 8x
Fair
$33.14
-2.0%
FCF $668M × 11x
Bull
$65.67
+94.1%
FCF $869M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (41 analysts)
$38.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
14%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $33.14 per share. Range: $8.74 (bear) to $65.67 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($16.56) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -74%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential