CNX
CNX Resources Corporation
$35.31
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 27.1% above fair value
You pay
$35.31
Bear
$4.38
Fair
$27.78
Bull
$59.00
Bear
$4.38
-87.6%
FCF $374M × 8x
Fair
$27.78
-21.3%
FCF $534M × 11x
Bull
$59.00
+67.1%
FCF $694M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $36.17 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $27.78 per share.
Warnings
Debt per share ($17.32) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -89%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $36.17 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential