CNQ
Canadian Natural Resources Limited
$49.64
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 74.6% above fair value
You pay
$49.64
Bear
$11.27
Fair
$28.43
Bull
$51.31
Bear
$11.27
-77.3%
FCF $4639M × 8x
Fair
$28.43
-42.7%
FCF $6628M × 11x
Bull
$51.31
+3.4%
FCF $8616M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$50.81
Divergence from AlphaVal
44%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $28.43 per share. Range: $11.27 (bear) to $51.31 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -77%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $50.81 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7148 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential