CNQ
Canadian Natural Resources Limited
$41.05
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 46.9% above fair value
You pay
$41.05
Bear
$10.68
Fair
$27.95
Bull
$50.97
Bear
$10.68
-74.0%
FCF $4164M × 8x
Fair
$27.95
-31.9%
FCF $5948M × 11x
Bull
$50.97
+24.2%
FCF $7733M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.00 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $27.95 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -77%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.00 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7062 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential