CNP CenterPoint Energy, Inc.
$44.56
Stable Earnings Power 85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 40.8% above fair value

You pay $44.56
Bear $27.70
Fair $31.65
Bull $35.61
Bear $27.70 -37.8% $1.60 × 14x P/E
Fair $31.65 -29.0% $1.60 × 16x P/E
Bull $35.61 -20.1% $1.60 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 27.9x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $45.78 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.65 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $46.90 (above our primary estimate by 83%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $45.78 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples