CNO
CNO Financial Group, Inc.
$47.29
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.1% below fair value
You pay
$47.29
Bear
$39.92
Fair
$57.03
Bull
$74.13
Bear
$39.92
-15.6%
ROTCE 20.0% → 3.28x TBV
Fair
$57.03
+20.6%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$74.13
+56.8%
ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (235.7%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
45.37x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.67 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $57.03 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $21.00 (65% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $46.67 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly