CNO
CNO Financial Group, Inc.
$53.59
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.0% below fair value
You pay
$53.59
Bear
$40.77
Fair
$58.23
Bull
$75.70
Bear
$40.77
-23.9%
ROTCE 20.0% → 3.32x TBV
Fair
$58.23
+8.7%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$75.70
+41.3%
ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (235.7%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
51.41x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $51.50 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $58.23 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $21.34 (65% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly