CNMD CONMED Corporation
$37.23
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 30.6% below fair value

You pay $37.23
Bear $42.92
Fair $53.66
Bull $64.38
Bear $42.92 +15.3% $2.79 × 13x P/E
Fair $53.66 +44.1% $2.79 × 16x P/E
Bull $64.38 +72.9% $2.79 × 20x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.3x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $78.00 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $53.66 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 85%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $78.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples