CNMD
CONMED Corporation
$47.68
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 50.5% above fair value
You pay
$47.68
Bear
$25.34
Fair
$31.67
Bull
$38.01
Bear
$25.34
-46.9%
$1.94 × 13x P/E
Fair
$31.67
-33.6%
$1.94 × 16x P/E
Bull
$38.01
-20.3%
$1.94 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.3x
1.94$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$37.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
16%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.94, the base-case value is $31.67 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples