CNM
Core & Main, Inc.
$47.27
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 13.2% above fair value
You pay
$47.27
Bear
$33.78
Fair
$41.76
Bull
$48.68
Bear
$33.78
-28.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$41.76
-11.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$48.68
+3.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
18.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $64.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $41.76 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $64.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions