CNM
Core & Main, Inc.
$40.35
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 15.2% below fair value
You pay
$40.35
Bear
$38.17
Fair
$47.58
Bull
$55.87
Bear
$38.17
-5.4%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$47.58
+17.9%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$55.87
+38.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
14.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
4.1%
vs 5.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$55.17
Divergence from AlphaVal
14%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $47.58 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions