CMT
Core Molding Technologies, Inc.
$23.27
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 20.3% above fair value
You pay
$23.27
Bear
$15.48
Fair
$19.35
Bull
$23.22
Bear
$15.48
-33.5%
$1.29 × 12x P/E
Fair
$19.35
-16.8%
$1.29 × 15x P/E
Bull
$23.22
-0.2%
$1.29 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.29$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.0x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.29, the base-case value is $19.35 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples