CMT
Core Molding Technologies, Inc.
$23.53
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 18.9% above fair value
You pay
$23.53
Bear
$15.84
Fair
$19.80
Bull
$23.76
Bear
$15.84
-32.7%
$1.32 × 12x P/E
Fair
$19.80
-15.9%
$1.32 × 15x P/E
Bull
$23.76
+1.0%
$1.32 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.8x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.32, the base-case value is $19.80 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples