CMRE
Costamare Inc.
$16.42
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 89.9% below fair value
You pay
$16.42
Bear
$80.51
Fair
$161.96
Bull
$268.93
Bear
$80.51
+390.3%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$161.96
+886.4%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$268.93
+1537.8%
29% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
6.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $13.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $161.96 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $13.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 1432% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions