CMPR
Cimpress plc
$99.73
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 229.7% above fair value
You pay
$99.73
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$30.25
Bull
$74.35
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$30.25
-69.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$74.35
-25.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
38.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.8%
vs 8.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $111.50 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $30.25 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 394% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $111.50 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 91% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions