CMPR
Cimpress plc
$74.21
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 9.9% above fair value
You pay
$74.21
Bear
$43.73
Fair
$67.50
Bull
$89.07
Bear
$43.73
-41.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$67.50
-9.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$89.07
+20.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.1%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
16.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.8%
vs 7.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$115.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
42%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $67.50 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 64% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $115.50 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions