CMPO
CompoSecure, Inc.
$16.51
Distressed or Transitioning
70%
Current EPS × Depressed Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 14.5% below fair value
You pay
$16.51
Bear
$12.87
Fair
$19.30
Bull
$25.74
Bear
$12.87
-22.0%
EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair
$19.30
+16.9%
Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull
$25.74
+55.9%
Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
6.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.83 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.30 per share.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case