CMP
Compass Minerals International, Inc.
$30.59
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.9% below fair value
You pay
$30.59
Bear
$25.75
Fair
$32.18
Bull
$38.62
Bear
$25.75
-15.8%
$2.28 × 12x P/E
Fair
$32.18
+5.2%
$2.28 × 15x P/E
Bull
$38.62
+26.2%
$2.28 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $26.33 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $32.18 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $26.33 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples