CMP
Compass Minerals International, Inc.
$29.46
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.6% below fair value
You pay
$29.46
Bear
$26.98
Fair
$33.72
Bull
$40.47
Bear
$26.98
-8.4%
$2.28 × 12x P/E
Fair
$33.72
+14.5%
$2.28 × 15x P/E
Bull
$40.47
+37.4%
$2.28 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.50 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $33.72 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples