CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$31.79
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.5% below fair value
You pay
$31.79
Bear
$30.40
Fair
$36.32
Bull
$42.23
Bear
$30.40
-4.4%
$1.14 × 24x P/E
Fair
$36.32
+14.2%
$1.14 × 29x P/E
Bull
$42.23
+32.8%
$1.14 × 33x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (29x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $42.80 from 67 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.32 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples