CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$27.52
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 16.2% below fair value
You pay
$27.52
Bear
$27.48
Fair
$32.83
Bull
$38.17
Bear
$27.48
-0.1%
$1.14 × 24x P/E
Fair
$32.83
+19.3%
$1.14 × 29x P/E
Bull
$38.17
+38.7%
$1.14 × 33x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
28.8x
1.14$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (29x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (67 analysts)
$40.92
Divergence from AlphaVal
20%
Summary
Applying a 29x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.14, the base-case value is $32.83 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples