CME
CME Group Inc.
$278.03
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 8.0% above fair value
You pay
$278.03
Bear
$191.82
Fair
$257.51
Bull
$322.10
Bear
$191.82
-31.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$257.51
-7.4%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$322.10
+15.9%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
23.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.1%
vs 10.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$296.71
Divergence from AlphaVal
13%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $257.51 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions