CME
CME Group Inc.
$291.23
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 10.1% above fair value
You pay
$291.23
Bear
$199.52
Fair
$264.60
Bull
$327.86
Bear
$199.52
-31.5%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$264.60
-9.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$327.86
+12.6%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
25.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $320.25 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $264.60 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions