CMCSA
Comcast Corporation
$21.90
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 65.4% below fair value
You pay
$21.90
Bear
$63.35
Fair
$63.35
Bull
$69.56
Bear
$63.35
+189.3%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$63.35
+189.3%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$69.56
+217.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
7.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-5.6%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (61 analysts)
$27.23
Divergence from AlphaVal
133%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $63.35 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $27.23 (from 61 analysts). Our estimate is 133% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions