CMCSA
Comcast Corporation
$25.20
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 42.6% below fair value
You pay
$25.20
Bear
$43.89
Fair
$43.89
Bull
$48.51
Bear
$43.89
+74.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$43.89
+74.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$48.51
+92.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
8.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.35 from 60 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.89 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $31.35 (from 60 analysts). Our estimate is 62% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions