CMCSA Comcast Corporation
$25.20
Platform & Compounding FCF 75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 42.6% below fair value

You pay $25.20
Bear $43.89
Fair $43.89
Bull $48.51
Bear $43.89 +74.1% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair $43.89 +74.1% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull $48.51 +92.5% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 8.7x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.35 from 60 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.89 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $31.35 (from 60 analysts). Our estimate is 62% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions