CMCSA
Comcast Corporation
$22.30
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 48.2% below fair value
You pay
$22.30
Bear
$43.01
Fair
$43.01
Bull
$47.53
Bear
$43.01
+92.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$43.01
+92.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$47.53
+113.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
8.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-3.3%
vs 3.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.20 from 61 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.01 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $28.20 (from 61 analysts). Our estimate is 81% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions