CMCO
Columbus McKinnon Corporation
$14.04
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 27.8% below fair value
You pay
$14.04
Bear
$15.56
Fair
$19.45
Bull
$23.34
Bear
$15.56
+10.8%
$1.04 × 15x P/E
Fair
$19.45
+38.5%
$1.04 × 19x P/E
Bull
$23.34
+66.2%
$1.04 × 22x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
18.7x
1.04$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$17.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
14%
Summary
Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.04, the base-case value is $19.45 per share. DDM cross-check: $4.37.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $4.37 (below our primary estimate by 78%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
This stock is 42% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples