CMBT
Cmb.Tech N.V.
$18.36
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 31.5% below fair value
You pay
$18.36
Bear
$21.46
Fair
$26.82
Bull
$32.18
Bear
$21.46
+16.9%
$1.79 × 12x P/E
Fair
$26.82
+46.1%
$1.79 × 15x P/E
Bull
$32.18
+75.3%
$1.79 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.79$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.3x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.79, the base-case value is $26.82 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 145%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 288% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples