CMA
Comerica Incorporated
$88.67
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.6% below fair value
You pay
$88.67
Bear
$70.19
Fair
$100.28
Bull
$130.37
Bear
$70.19
-20.8%
ROTCE 7.0% → 0.51x TBV
Fair
$100.28
+13.1%
ROTCE 9.4% → 0.90x TBV
Bull
$130.37
+47.0%
ROTCE 10.8% → 1.14x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.4%) vs. cost of equity (10.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.47x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $103.00 from 62 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $100.28 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (9.4%) is below the minimum investors require (10.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $31.47 (68% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly