CMA
Comerica Incorporated
$88.67
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.3% below fair value
You pay
$88.67
Bear
$69.17
Fair
$98.82
Bull
$128.47
Bear
$69.17
-22.0%
ROTCE 7.0% → 0.51x TBV
Fair
$98.82
+11.4%
ROTCE 9.4% → 0.90x TBV
Bull
$128.47
+44.9%
ROTCE 10.8% → 1.14x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
9.4%
10.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.4%) vs. cost of equity (10.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.47x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (62 analysts)
$80.36
Divergence from AlphaVal
23%
Summary
With ROTCE of 9.4% vs. 10.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.90x on $60.22 tangible book, implying $98.82 per share. DDM cross-check: $31.47.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (9.4%) is below the minimum investors require (10.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $31.47 (68% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly