CLW
Clearwater Paper Corporation
$19.29
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 55.7% above fair value
You pay
$19.29
Bear
$9.91
Fair
$12.39
Bull
$14.87
Bear
$9.91
-48.6%
$0.83 × 12x P/E
Fair
$12.39
-35.8%
$0.83 × 15x P/E
Bull
$14.87
-22.9%
$0.83 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
0.83$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$19.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
36%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.83, the base-case value is $12.39 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $19.33 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples