CLS
Celestica Inc.
$362.24
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 83.3% above fair value
You pay
$362.24
Bear
$118.20
Fair
$197.62
Bull
$289.96
Bear
$118.20
-67.4%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$197.62
-45.4%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$289.96
-20.0%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
101.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
33.0%
vs 17.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $459.00 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $197.62 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $459.00 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions