CLMT
Calumet Inc.
$57.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 45.4% above fair value
You pay
$57.75
Bear
$19.35
Fair
$39.73
Bull
$60.96
Bear
$19.35
-66.5%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$39.73
-31.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$60.96
+5.6%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
32.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.5%
vs 12.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$55.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $39.73 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $55.67 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions