CLMT
Calumet Inc.
$50.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 26.9% above fair value
You pay
$50.84
Bear
$19.52
Fair
$40.07
Bull
$61.48
Bear
$19.52
-61.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$40.07
-21.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$61.48
+20.9%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
29.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.3%
vs 12.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$46.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
13%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $40.07 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions