CLMT
Calumet, Inc.
$34.22
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 213.9% above fair value
You pay
$34.22
Bear
$1.79
Fair
$10.90
Bull
$23.02
Bear
$1.79
-94.8%
FCF $40M × 8x
Fair
$10.90
-68.1%
FCF $57M × 11x
Bull
$23.02
-32.7%
FCF $74M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
57.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.00 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.90 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -98%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $31.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 86% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential