CLH
Clean Harbors, Inc.
$317.09
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 48.1% above fair value
You pay
$317.09
Bear
$133.85
Fair
$214.17
Bull
$297.82
Bear
$133.85
-57.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$214.17
-32.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$297.82
-6.1%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
35.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.7%
vs 12.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$363.70
Divergence from AlphaVal
41%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $214.17 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $363.70 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions