CLH
Clean Harbors, Inc.
$310.58
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 103.2% above fair value
You pay
$310.58
Bear
$104.14
Fair
$152.82
Bull
$198.55
Bear
$104.14
-66.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$152.82
-50.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$198.55
-36.1%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
45.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
20.0%
vs 8.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $306.50 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $152.82 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $306.50 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions