CLH
Clean Harbors, Inc.
$322.82
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 90.8% above fair value
You pay
$322.82
Bear
$114.71
Fair
$169.17
Bull
$222.33
Bear
$114.71
-64.5%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$169.17
-47.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$222.33
-31.1%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
36.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.9%
vs 9.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$353.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
52%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $169.17 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $353.00 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions