CLFD
Clearfield, Inc.
$32.90
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 55.5% below fair value
You pay
$32.90
Bear
$43.04
Fair
$74.00
Bull
$113.68
Bear
$43.04
+30.8%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$74.00
+124.9%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$113.68
+245.5%
28% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
21.2%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (21% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
16.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.1%
vs 21.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$40.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
82%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 21% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $74.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $40.67 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 82% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions