CLFD
Clearfield, Inc.
$43.73
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 35.6% below fair value
You pay
$43.73
Bear
$39.47
Fair
$67.87
Bull
$104.26
Bear
$39.47
-9.7%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$67.87
+55.2%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$104.26
+138.4%
28% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (21% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
23.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $43.33 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.87 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $43.33 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 71% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions