CLBT
Cellebrite DI Ltd.
$14.85
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 45.7% below fair value
You pay
$14.85
Bear
$15.87
Fair
$27.33
Bull
$41.58
Bear
$15.87
+6.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$27.33
+84.1%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$41.58
+180.0%
25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
21.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.7%
vs 19.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.75 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $27.33 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $19.75 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 48% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions