CLB
Core Laboratories N.V.
$9.91
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 89.9% above fair value
You pay
$9.91
Bear
$1.87
Fair
$5.22
Bull
$9.43
Bear
$1.87
-81.2%
FCF $23M × 10x
Fair
$5.22
-47.3%
FCF $29M × 13x
Bull
$9.43
-4.8%
FCF $36M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$21.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
75%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $5.22 per share. Range: $1.87 (bear) to $9.43 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($3.08) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -81%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.00 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential