CL
Colgate-Palmolive Company
$86.80
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 94.1% above fair value
You pay
$86.80
Bear
$36.82
Fair
$44.71
Bull
$52.60
Bear
$36.82
-57.6%
$2.63 × 14x P/E
Fair
$44.71
-48.5%
$2.63 × 17x P/E
Bull
$52.60
-39.4%
$2.63 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
2.63$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
33.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$97.78
Divergence from AlphaVal
54%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.63, the base-case value is $44.71 per share. DDM cross-check: $40.52.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $97.78 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples