CL Colgate-Palmolive Company
$91.03
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 47.1% above fair value

You pay $91.03
Bear $50.96
Fair $61.87
Bull $72.80
Bear $50.96 -44.0% $2.77 × 14x P/E
Fair $61.87 -32.0% $2.77 × 17x P/E
Bull $72.80 -20.0% $2.77 × 20x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 32.8x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $96.30 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $61.87 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $96.30 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples