CL
Colgate-Palmolive Company
$90.61
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 47.4% above fair value
You pay
$90.61
Bear
$50.62
Fair
$61.45
Bull
$72.30
Bear
$50.62
-44.1%
$2.77 × 14x P/E
Fair
$61.45
-32.2%
$2.77 × 17x P/E
Bull
$72.30
-20.2%
$2.77 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
32.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $94.90 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $61.45 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $94.90 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples