CIVI
Civitas Resources, Inc.
$27.38
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 74.9% below fair value
You pay
$27.38
Bear
$30.06
Fair
$108.98
Bull
$214.21
Bear
$30.06
+9.8%
FCF $873M × 8x
Fair
$108.98
+298.0%
FCF $1247M × 11x
Bull
$214.21
+682.4%
FCF $1621M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
5.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$63.42
Divergence from AlphaVal
72%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $108.98 per share. Range: $30.06 (bear) to $214.21 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($51.78) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $63.42 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 72% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential