CI Cigna Corporation
$281.45
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 31.5% below fair value

You pay $281.45
Bear $328.49
Fair $410.62
Bull $492.74
Bear $328.49 +16.7% $31.05 × 11x P/E
Fair $410.62 +45.9% $31.05 × 14x P/E
Bull $492.74 +75.1% $31.05 × 17x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.1x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $341.82 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $410.62 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 40%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $2107.81 (above our primary estimate by 379%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $341.82 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 29% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples