CI
Cigna Corporation
$298.48
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 5.0% below fair value
You pay
$298.48
Bear
$251.36
Fair
$314.20
Bull
$377.03
Bear
$251.36
-15.8%
$22.17 × 11x P/E
Fair
$314.20
+5.3%
$22.17 × 14x P/E
Bull
$377.03
+26.3%
$22.17 × 17x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
14.2x
22.17$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (39 analysts)
$342.08
Divergence from AlphaVal
8%
Summary
Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $22.17, the base-case value is $314.20 per share. DDM cross-check: $898.13.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $898.13 (above our primary estimate by 186%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples