CHWY Chewy, Inc.
$23.82
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 138.5% above fair value

You pay $23.82
Bear $8.74
Fair $9.99
Bull $11.24
Bear $8.74 -63.3% $0.52 × 17x P/E
Fair $9.99 -58.1% $0.52 × 19x P/E
Bull $11.24 -52.8% $0.52 × 22x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

19.2x
0.52$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 45.8x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (38 analysts) $31.54
Divergence from AlphaVal 68%

Summary

Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.52, the base-case value is $9.99 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $31.54 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples