CHWY
Chewy, Inc.
$21.29
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 29.1% above fair value
You pay
$21.29
Bear
$14.44
Fair
$16.49
Bull
$18.56
Bear
$14.44
-32.2%
$0.52 × 17x P/E
Fair
$16.49
-22.5%
$0.52 × 19x P/E
Bull
$18.56
-12.8%
$0.52 × 22x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
40.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.54 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.49 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $31.54 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples