CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.
$174.23
Stable Earnings Power 65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 61.4% above fair value

You pay $174.23
Bear $86.35
Fair $107.94
Bull $129.53
Bear $86.35 -50.4% $4.90 × 12x P/E
Fair $107.94 -38.1% $4.90 × 15x P/E
Bull $129.53 -25.7% $4.90 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 35.5x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $188.12 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $107.94 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $52.24 (below our primary estimate by 29%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $188.12 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 61% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples