CHRW
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.
$199.61
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 78.9% above fair value
You pay
$199.61
Bear
$89.26
Fair
$111.57
Bull
$133.89
Bear
$89.26
-55.3%
$4.90 × 12x P/E
Fair
$111.57
-44.1%
$4.90 × 15x P/E
Bull
$133.89
-32.9%
$4.90 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
40.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $200.23 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $111.57 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $52.24 (below our primary estimate by 29%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $200.23 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples