CHRW
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.
$150.39
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 107.6% above fair value
You pay
$150.39
Bear
$57.96
Fair
$72.45
Bull
$86.94
Bear
$57.96
-61.5%
$4.83 × 12x P/E
Fair
$72.45
-51.8%
$4.83 × 15x P/E
Bull
$86.94
-42.2%
$4.83 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
4.83$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
31.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (46 analysts)
$194.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
63%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.83, the base-case value is $72.45 per share. DDM cross-check: $49.35.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $49.35 (below our primary estimate by 32%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $194.50 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples