CHRD
Chord Energy Corporation
$143.98
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.8% above fair value
You pay
$143.98
Bear
$48.88
Fair
$120.19
Bull
$215.27
Bear
$48.88
-66.1%
FCF $485M × 8x
Fair
$120.19
-16.5%
FCF $693M × 11x
Bull
$215.27
+49.5%
FCF $901M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $144.80 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $120.19 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential