CHRD
Chord Energy Corporation
$134.19
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 8.7% above fair value
You pay
$134.19
Bear
$50.18
Fair
$123.40
Bull
$221.02
Bear
$50.18
-62.6%
FCF $485M × 8x
Fair
$123.40
-8.0%
FCF $693M × 11x
Bull
$221.02
+64.7%
FCF $901M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $157.63 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $123.40 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $157.63 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential