CHRD
Chord Energy Corporation
$145.65
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 26.8% above fair value
You pay
$145.65
Bear
$47.00
Fair
$114.84
Bull
$205.31
Bear
$47.00
-67.7%
FCF $495M × 8x
Fair
$114.84
-21.2%
FCF $707M × 11x
Bull
$205.31
+41.0%
FCF $920M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$174.38
Divergence from AlphaVal
34%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $114.84 per share. Range: $47.00 (bear) to $205.31 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $174.38 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential