CHRD
Chord Energy Corporation
$121.99
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.1% above fair value
You pay
$121.99
Bear
$49.09
Fair
$120.72
Bull
$216.21
Bear
$49.09
-59.8%
FCF $485M × 8x
Fair
$120.72
-1.0%
FCF $693M × 11x
Bull
$216.21
+77.2%
FCF $901M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $146.90 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $120.72 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential