CHKP
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.
$137.05
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.3% below fair value
You pay
$137.05
Bear
$155.86
Fair
$193.92
Bull
$229.26
Bear
$155.86
+13.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$193.92
+41.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$229.26
+67.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
12.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.8%
vs 7.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (63 analysts)
$146.30
Divergence from AlphaVal
33%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $193.92 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $146.30 (from 63 analysts). Our estimate is 33% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions