CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.
$112.95
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 202.6% above fair value
You pay
$112.95
Bear
$15.97
Fair
$37.33
Bull
$60.51
Bear
$15.97
-85.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$37.33
-67.0%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$60.51
-46.4%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.2%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
56.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
24.9%
vs 14.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$111.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
66%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $37.33 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $111.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions