CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.
$94.48
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 172.4% above fair value
You pay
$94.48
Bear
$5.87
Fair
$34.69
Bull
$65.25
Bear
$5.87
-93.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$34.69
-63.3%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$65.25
-30.9%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
68.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
27.6%
vs 13.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $90.50 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.69 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $90.50 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions