CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.
$76.46
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 142.2% above fair value
You pay
$76.46
Bear
$4.41
Fair
$31.57
Bull
$59.93
Bear
$4.41
-94.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$31.57
-58.7%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$59.93
-21.6%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
58.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $83.33 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.57 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $83.33 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 83% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions