CHE
Chemed Corporation
$515.44
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 86.6% above fair value
You pay
$515.44
Bear
$221.04
Fair
$276.30
Bull
$331.56
Bear
$221.04
-57.1%
$18.42 × 12x P/E
Fair
$276.30
-46.4%
$18.42 × 15x P/E
Bull
$331.56
-35.7%
$18.42 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
18.42$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
28.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$650.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
57%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $18.42, the base-case value is $276.30 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $650.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples