CHE
Chemed Corporation
$492.65
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 53.2% above fair value
You pay
$492.65
Bear
$257.30
Fair
$321.62
Bull
$385.95
Bear
$257.30
-47.8%
$18.88 × 12x P/E
Fair
$321.62
-34.7%
$18.88 × 15x P/E
Bull
$385.95
-21.7%
$18.88 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $475.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $321.62 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $475.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples