CHDN
Churchill Downs Incorporated
$80.02
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 73.1% above fair value
You pay
$80.02
Bear
$27.07
Fair
$46.23
Bull
$63.21
Bear
$27.07
-66.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$46.23
-42.2%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$63.21
-21.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
20.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.6%
vs 6.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$131.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
65%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $46.23 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $131.67 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions