CHDN
Churchill Downs Incorporated
$83.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 16.9% above fair value
You pay
$83.75
Bear
$38.10
Fair
$71.67
Bull
$102.17
Bear
$38.10
-54.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$71.67
-14.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$102.17
+22.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
22.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.7%
vs 7.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $145.00 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $71.67 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $145.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions