CHDN
Churchill Downs Incorporated
$89.90
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 96.3% above fair value
You pay
$89.90
Bear
$26.86
Fair
$45.81
Bull
$62.58
Bear
$26.86
-70.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$45.81
-49.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$62.58
-30.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
22.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.4%
vs 6.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$145.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
68%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $45.81 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $145.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions