CHD
Church & Dwight Co., Inc.
$101.25
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 97.2% above fair value
You pay
$101.25
Bear
$42.28
Fair
$51.34
Bull
$60.40
Bear
$42.28
-58.2%
$3.02 × 14x P/E
Fair
$51.34
-49.3%
$3.02 × 17x P/E
Bull
$60.40
-40.3%
$3.02 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
3.02$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
33.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (34 analysts)
$108.88
Divergence from AlphaVal
53%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.02, the base-case value is $51.34 per share. DDM cross-check: $26.36.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $26.36 (below our primary estimate by 49%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $108.88 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples