CHD
Church & Dwight Co., Inc.
$95.41
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 17.5% above fair value
You pay
$95.41
Bear
$66.88
Fair
$81.21
Bull
$95.53
Bear
$66.88
-29.9%
$4.16 × 14x P/E
Fair
$81.21
-14.9%
$4.16 × 17x P/E
Bull
$95.53
+0.1%
$4.16 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $105.63 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $81.21 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 38%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $26.01 (below our primary estimate by 63%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $105.63 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples