CHCT
Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated
$13.47
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 56.7% below fair value
You pay
$13.47
Bear
$24.73
Fair
$31.09
Bull
$37.45
Bear
$24.73
+83.6%
$1.70 FFO × 15x
Fair
$31.09
+130.8%
$1.70 FFO × 20x
Bull
$37.45
+178.0%
$1.70 FFO × 24x
Adjust Assumptions
19.7x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.70) × healthcare P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
7.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$17.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
83%
Summary
At $1.70 FFO/share with a 20x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $31.09 per share. Dividend yield: 13.1%. DDM cross-check: $25.43.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 13.1% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $17.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 83% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify