CGNX
Cognex Corporation
$66.09
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 112.8% above fair value
You pay
$66.09
Bear
$24.84
Fair
$31.06
Bull
$37.26
Bear
$24.84
-62.4%
$0.94 × 12x P/E
Fair
$31.06
-53.0%
$0.94 × 15x P/E
Bull
$37.26
-43.6%
$0.94 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
70.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $70.09 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.06 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 39%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $70.09 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples