CGNX
Cognex Corporation
$60.54
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 322.5% above fair value
You pay
$60.54
Bear
$11.46
Fair
$14.33
Bull
$17.19
Bear
$11.46
-81.1%
$0.94 × 12x P/E
Fair
$14.33
-76.3%
$0.94 × 15x P/E
Bull
$17.19
-71.6%
$0.94 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.2x
0.94$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
64.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (32 analysts)
$75.91
Divergence from AlphaVal
81%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.94, the base-case value is $14.33 per share. DDM cross-check: $14.42.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 39%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $75.91 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 81% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples