CG
The Carlyle Group Inc.
$44.98
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 34.0% below fair value
You pay
$44.98
Bear
$47.69
Fair
$68.14
Bull
$88.59
Bear
$47.69
+6.0%
ROTCE 11.5% → 0.75x TBV
Fair
$68.14
+51.5%
ROTCE 15.4% → 1.14x TBV
Bull
$88.59
+97.0%
ROTCE 17.7% → 1.37x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (15.4%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
3.08x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $56.50 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $68.14 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $17.21 (76% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $56.50 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 27% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly