CENTA
Central Garden & Pet Company
$35.00
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.3% below fair value
You pay
$35.00
Bear
$35.70
Fair
$43.35
Bull
$51.00
Bear
$35.70
+2.0%
$2.55 × 14x P/E
Fair
$43.35
+23.9%
$2.55 × 17x P/E
Bull
$51.00
+45.7%
$2.55 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
2.55$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$53.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
18%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.55, the base-case value is $43.35 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples