CENT Central Garden & Pet Company
$38.58
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 27.0% below fair value

You pay $38.58
Bear $43.52
Fair $52.84
Bull $62.16
Bear $43.52 +12.8% $3.09 × 14x P/E
Fair $52.84 +37.0% $3.09 × 17x P/E
Bull $62.16 +61.1% $3.09 × 20x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.5x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $54.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.84 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples