CENT
Central Garden & Pet Company
$43.09
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.5% below fair value
You pay
$43.09
Bear
$43.52
Fair
$52.84
Bull
$62.16
Bear
$43.52
+1.0%
$3.09 × 14x P/E
Fair
$52.84
+22.6%
$3.09 × 17x P/E
Bull
$62.16
+44.3%
$3.09 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $54.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.84 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples