CELH
Celsius Holdings, Inc.
$28.64
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 39.4% below fair value
You pay
$28.64
Bear
$28.26
Fair
$47.28
Bull
$69.33
Bear
$28.26
-1.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$47.28
+65.0%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$69.33
+142.0%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
21.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.2%
vs 16.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$41.38
Divergence from AlphaVal
14%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $47.28 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions