CELH
Celsius Holdings, Inc.
$30.21
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 42.3% below fair value
You pay
$30.21
Bear
$28.19
Fair
$52.34
Bull
$82.66
Bear
$28.19
-6.7%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$52.34
+73.2%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$82.66
+173.6%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
26.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.7%
vs 20.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.25 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.34 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions