CELH
Celsius Holdings, Inc.
$30.17
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 34.0% below fair value
You pay
$30.17
Bear
$27.59
Fair
$45.74
Bull
$66.64
Bear
$27.59
-8.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$45.74
+51.6%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$66.64
+120.9%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
23.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.0%
vs 16.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$41.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
9%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $45.74 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions