CEG
Constellation Energy Corporation
$298.96
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 83.6% above fair value
You pay
$298.96
Bear
$133.20
Fair
$162.80
Bull
$192.40
Bear
$133.20
-55.4%
$7.40 × 18x P/E
Fair
$162.80
-45.5%
$7.40 × 22x P/E
Bull
$192.40
-35.6%
$7.40 × 26x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.0x
7.4$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
40.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$354.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
54%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.40, the base-case value is $162.80 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $354.50 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples