CEG
Constellation Energy Corporation
$258.84
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 59.0% above fair value
You pay
$258.84
Bear
$133.20
Fair
$162.80
Bull
$192.40
Bear
$133.20
-48.5%
$7.40 × 18x P/E
Fair
$162.80
-37.1%
$7.40 × 22x P/E
Bull
$192.40
-25.7%
$7.40 × 26x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.0x
7.4$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
35.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$345.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
53%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.40, the base-case value is $162.80 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $345.75 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples