CEG
Constellation Energy Corporation
$294.07
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 33.7% above fair value
You pay
$294.07
Bear
$179.97
Fair
$219.96
Bull
$259.95
Bear
$179.97
-38.8%
$7.40 × 18x P/E
Fair
$219.96
-25.2%
$7.40 × 22x P/E
Bull
$259.95
-11.6%
$7.40 × 26x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
39.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $391.43 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $219.96 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $391.43 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples