CEG
Constellation Energy Corporation
$251.77
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 17.9% above fair value
You pay
$251.77
Bear
$174.71
Fair
$213.54
Bull
$252.36
Bear
$174.71
-30.6%
$7.40 × 18x P/E
Fair
$213.54
-15.2%
$7.40 × 22x P/E
Bull
$252.36
+0.2%
$7.40 × 26x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
34.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $365.75 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $213.54 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $365.75 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 55% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples