CECO
CECO Environmental Corp.
$80.30
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 53.3% above fair value
You pay
$80.30
Bear
$41.92
Fair
$52.39
Bull
$62.88
Bear
$41.92
-47.8%
$1.54 × 18x P/E
Fair
$52.39
-34.8%
$1.54 × 22x P/E
Bull
$62.88
-21.7%
$1.54 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
52.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $105.40 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.39 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $105.40 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples