CECO
CECO Environmental Corp.
$57.49
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 86.5% above fair value
You pay
$57.49
Bear
$24.66
Fair
$30.83
Bull
$36.99
Bear
$24.66
-57.1%
$1.37 × 18x P/E
Fair
$30.83
-46.4%
$1.37 × 22x P/E
Bull
$36.99
-35.7%
$1.37 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.5x
1.37$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
42.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$106.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
71%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.37, the base-case value is $30.83 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $106.80 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 71% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples