CECO
CECO Environmental Corp.
$81.71
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 71.7% above fair value
You pay
$81.71
Bear
$38.08
Fair
$47.59
Bull
$57.12
Bear
$38.08
-53.4%
$1.54 × 18x P/E
Fair
$47.59
-41.8%
$1.54 × 22x P/E
Bull
$57.12
-30.1%
$1.54 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
52.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $86.20 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $47.59 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $86.20 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples