CE
Celanese Corporation
$47.92
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 25.6% below fair value
You pay
$47.92
Bear
$16.48
Fair
$64.37
Bull
$112.66
Bear
$16.48
-65.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$64.37
+34.3%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$112.66
+135.1%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
21.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.7%
vs 11.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $64.82 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $64.37 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions