CE
Celanese Corporation
$52.39
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.9% below fair value
You pay
$52.39
Bear
$16.54
Fair
$64.61
Bull
$113.07
Bear
$16.54
-68.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$64.61
+23.3%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$113.07
+115.8%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
21.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $65.60 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $64.61 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions