CE
Celanese Corporation
$47.49
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 75.4% below fair value
You pay
$47.49
Bear
$109.29
Fair
$193.10
Bull
$277.60
Bear
$109.29
+130.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$193.10
+306.6%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$277.60
+484.5%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
12.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.0%
vs 11.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$53.63
Divergence from AlphaVal
260%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $193.10 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $53.63 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 260% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions