CDP
COPT Defense Properties
$36.55
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 5.8% above fair value
You pay
$36.55
Bear
$27.16
Fair
$34.54
Bull
$41.93
Bear
$27.16
-25.7%
$2.77 FFO × 11x
Fair
$34.54
-5.5%
$2.77 FFO × 14x
Bull
$41.93
+14.7%
$2.77 FFO × 17x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($2.77) × office P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
13.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $37.33 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.54 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $23.70 (29% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify