CDP
COPT Defense Properties
$33.29
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.7% below fair value
You pay
$33.29
Bear
$26.92
Fair
$34.21
Bull
$41.49
Bear
$26.92
-19.1%
$2.79 FFO × 11x
Fair
$34.21
+2.8%
$2.79 FFO × 14x
Bull
$41.49
+24.6%
$2.79 FFO × 17x
Adjust Assumptions
13.7x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($2.79) × office P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
11.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$40.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Summary
At $2.79 FFO/share with a 14x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $34.21 per share. Dividend yield: 3.8%. DDM cross-check: $25.18.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $25.18 (26% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify